Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.
Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.
Advanced statistics courtesy ofFanGraphs. Betting lines via theMLB oddsat FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.
MLB DFS Value Plays
Joey Estes, P, Athletics ($7,600)
The Oakland Athletics' 11th-best prospect is taking the mound for his 6th start of the season. Joey Estes' second outing of 2024 was a nightmare as he gave up eight runs in under four innings of work. Since, Estes has hit his stride with a 2.45 ERA paired with opponents batting only .156 over his previous three starts.
Estes has the second-lowest salary ($7,600) among starting pitchers on the slate for Monday. A quick look at the rookie's Savant page shows some potential concerns. He's in the bottom 1% in ground-ball percentage and bottom 16% in hard-hit percentage.
However, tonight's opponent -- the San Diego Padres -- isn't particularly dangerous in either category. The Padres are not immune to ground balls as they are tied for the 15th-highest mark. They are not consistently making hard contact, either, with the third-lowest hard-hit percentage.
Estes just posted 43.9 FanDuel points in his most recent outing; he's also averaging 32.6 FanDuel points over his previous three starts. Considering the rookie's recent hot streak, there's some excellent value in Estes against the Padres.
Davis Schneider, 3B, Blue Jays ($3,100)
Despite carrying a $3,100 salary, Davis Schneider of the Toronto Blue Jays has the highest projected FanDuel points among batters (15.6), per our projections. Schneider is also touting the second-highest point-per-dollar value score at 5.03.
The Jays take on the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Schneider is getting a favorable matchup against one of the Brew Crew's weakest starters -- Colin Rea. While the starting pitcher is carrying a 3.53 ERA, don't be fooled by this figure. Rea had a 6.03 ERA over four appearances from May 7th to May 25th; over the last month, his ERA has went from 2.67 to 3.53. Advanced stats only drive home this point as Rea has pitched to a 4.75 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).
Rea's Savant page is far from daunting as he's in the top half of baseball in only 1 of 12 major categories.
Schneider has been excellent at getting his barrel on the ball with a 13.7% barrel percentage (89th percentile). Meanwhile, Rea is in the bottom 17% in barrel percentage.
Pitch usage makes Schneider's outlook even better. Rea's most-used pitches are his sinker (28.1%) and cutter (24.4%). Schneider is raking against sinkers (.387) and cutters (.333) with batting averages of over .300 versus each pitch.
After going hitless for four consecutive games, Schneider has a great chance of getting back on track on Monday.
Max Kelper, RF, Twins ($2,700)
Max Kepler has three hits over his last nine at-bats. Our projections have Kepler with the highest value among batters (5.22) along with 14.1 projected FanDuel points. An intriguing matchup is present against a struggling starter.
The Colorado Rockies' Dakota Hudson has a 5.25 ERA and 1.52 WHIP -- both of which are on pace for career-low marks. His advanced starts aren't any better with a 5.36 SIERA.
Hudson's numbers take a huge jump when facing left-handed hitters. For example, lefties are batting .286 against him, and Hudson has a 1.86 WHIP in the split. When facing right-handed hitters, Hudson has a 1.25 WHIP while giving up a .228 average.
A left-hander hitter is nightmare for Hudson. Enter Kelper of the Minnesota Twins.
Minnesota's outfielder has posted FanDuel point totals of more 12.0 in two of his last four games. As the Twins' cleanup hitter against right-handed pitchers, Kepler's hard-hit percentage has dropped from 47.9% in 2023 (83rd percentile) to 38.2% this season (bottom 40%). However, Kepler is smashing against sinkers with a 52.4% hard-hit percentage on the pitch, and Hudson's most-used pitch is a sinker (32.5%).
Colorado's starter has struggled against left-handed hitters, and Kepler could see the ideal pitches to make hard contact tonight, resulting in extra-base hits.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
