Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (1)

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Rod Khleif

Master Multi-Family Real Estate, Create Multi-Generational Wealth & Freedom, Invest Passively or Actively | 1-on-1 Expert Coach | Multifamily & Apartment Investing | Real Estate Investing | #1 Best-Selling Author

Published Jan 22, 2024

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Bloomberg recently estimated that interest expense on the United States' $33T debt just crossed $1T on an annualized basis. Federal receipts are $4.4T, which means almost a quarter of all revenue is consumed by interest. Interest expense has doubled over the past two years and will probably move higher with 2024 auction activity!

"Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt." - Ben Franklin

We certainly have come a long way from the frugal beginnings of the country. The chart below shows how rapidly and seemingly out of control the US debt has skyrocketed to around $100K for every person in the country.

Who is going to buy all this US debt? (3)

In 2024, 33% of our outstanding public debt matures ($7.6T) and must be reissued in a higher rate environment. On top of this $7.6T, the federal deficit could hit $2.0T in 2024, which means the Treasury would have to issue nearly $10T of new debt. The question is: where is this money going to come from and what impact will this have on interest rates and taxes?

Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies. The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world. After the recent weak treasury auction, US government officials warned that they are seeing waning demand from international buyers. China has been a net seller and Japan seems tapped out. The strong dollar is also working against the Treasury. The US dollar strength versus other currencies makes it attractive for international owners to sell US debt and use the dollars to buy their own currency, boosting the value.

The remaining debt (22%) is owned by inter-government agencies including Social Security and Medicare. If you believe that Social Security and Medicare are bleeding off their surplus, then logically they will be net sellers over time as they use reserves to pay recipients.

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The auctions will come down to simple supply and demand. We know the supply is increasing and the demand is falling, which is bad for pricing. If the rates on Treasuries are attractive (higher) relative to other options, then we should be able to reissue the debt. In the most recent auction, the FED had to pivot to shorter term notes to entice buyers. Today, the 6-month treasury note yields 5.25% versus 4.0% for the 10-year, so clearly interest costs will increase in the short term if the US government is forced to issue short-term debt to attract buyers. If we don't get our deficits under control, the situation will only grow worse.

There is evidence, however, that higher interest rates on US debt are attracting new buyers. Two European money managers, Rathbones and Pictet, both recently announced an increase in their holdings of US Treasuries due to the attractive rates. Currently the US 10-year (4.0%) is higher than in the UK (3.8%), Spain (3.2%), Germany (2.2%) and Switzerland (0.8%), so it seems attractive relative to these options.

We are not sure how this will all shake out, but at some point, something has to give because the trajectory we are on is unsustainable. At the end of the day, someone will have to pay for the sins of the past. Taxes need to move higher, and spending needs to be cut; both moves would hurt the economy. A weakening economy would have a ripple effect across all businesses and commercial real estate. We do not think the tax and financing benefits awarded to multi-family would be impacted during the "balance the budget phase" that is coming, due to the core nature of our product. However, the cloudy outlook reinforces our conservative thinking when evaluating deals.

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Real Estate Market Update Who is going to buy all this US debt? (7)

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Ilan Brodsky

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great job rod!!!

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MOMINUL ISLAM

Digital Marketer | SEO Service Provider | YouTube SEO Expert | Social Media Marketing Manager | Google and Facebook Ads Service Provider | B2B Lead Generation. A Digital Marketing Specialist at Outsourcing BD Institute.

2mo

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Great

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Who is going to buy all this US debt? (2024)

FAQs

Who is buying the U.S. debt? ›

The international buying appetite has been falling over the past 10 years (dropping from 40% to the current 30%). The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world.

Who owns over 70% of the U.S. debt? ›

At the end of September 2023, domestic creditors held 77 percent of the outstanding debt held by the public. Foreign creditors held the remaining 23 percent.

Who is most of America's debt to? ›

Japan and China have been the largest foreign holders of US debt for the last two decades.

Who is the top owner of U.S. debt? ›

Japan is the largest holder of U.S. debt.

What happens if China sells us debt? ›

It's going to put it into bonds of other countries. It will have to buy other currencies in order to invest in those countries' bonds. So US interest rates will no doubt rise as the supply of US Treasury bonds suddenly increases and the dollar will fall as China moves a lot of money out of dollars.

How much US debt is owned by China? ›

China owns around 2.6% of U.S. debt, which it buys because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar. It would be impossible for China to call in all its U.S. debt at once, given the different maturity dates of the U.S. securities that China owns.

Does the US owe money to China? ›

U.S. debt to China comes in the form of U.S. Treasuries, largely due to their safety and stability. Although there are worries about China selling off U.S. debt, which would hamper economic growth, doing so in large amounts poses risks for China as well, making it unlikely to happen.

Can China call in US debt? ›

Nations like China typically hold US debt in the form of various US Treasury debt, including bonds and other notes. None of these instruments allow debt holders to simply demand repayment…you get the terms and conditions associated with the bond and there's little flexibility to “calling in all of their debts”.

Does any country owe the US money? ›

China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.

Why does the US owe so much money? ›

One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.

How much debt is Russia in? ›

In the latest reports, Russia National Government Debt reached 281.6 USD bn in Feb 2024. The country's Nominal GDP reached 494.7 USD bn in Mar 2023.

Do countries still owe the US money from WWII? ›

The case of debts arising from World War II is somewhat less complicated. At this time only four countries, discussed below, owe the U.S. government debts of any size arising from World War II programs to aid our allies. Other countries have paid their debts in full.

Where is US debt coming from? ›

The U.S. government incurs debt when it issues Treasury securities to fund the deficit between the amount of money that it receives in taxes and other revenues versus the amount of money that it spends on defense, welfare programs, the interest it pays on its current debt, and more.

How can the US get out of debt? ›

Tax hikes alone are rarely enough to stimulate the economy and pay down debt. Governments often issue debt in the form of bonds to raise money. Spending cuts and tax hikes combined have helped lower the deficit. Bailouts and debt defaults have disadvantages but can help a government solve a debt problem.

Who does China owe debt to? ›

China has little overseas debt, and a high national savings rate. In addition, most of the debt is state owned – state-controlled banks loaned funds to state-controlled firms – giving the government the ability to manage the situation.

How does China buy US debt? ›

But, Chinese companies and their workers need to be paid in China's local currency. This means the Chinese banking system must convert dollars with the central bank, which must then do something with them. The central bank uses these dollars to purchase Treasuries, which earn a stable return.

How does the US buy its own debt? ›

The National Debt Explained

money from federal income tax), a budget deficit results. To pay for this deficit, the federal government borrows money by selling marketable securities such as Treasury bonds , bills , notes , floating rate notes , and Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) .

Is the Fed buying debt? ›

The short answer: the Federal Reserve has indirectly bought the vast majority of debt issued since the crisis began. Whether this is debt monetization or more conventional quantitative easing is up for debate.

How much of the US debt is owned by the US? ›

While U.S. government debt is perhaps the most widely held class of security in the world, 21.8% of the public debt, or $6.87 trillion, is owned by another arm of the federal government itself.

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